In software sales, big ROI numbers get attention. But they can also backfire badly.
It’s easy to throw out the best-case estimate in the room. But when that number doesn’t materialize down the line, the initial excitement quickly turns to disappointment, and trust is lost.
I’ve been on both sides of the table. First as a buyer, trying to secure buy-in for a new investment and now as someone helping others do the same. And one thing I’ve learned is that ROI is less about numbers and more about credibility.
Because in the end, the winning number is the one that holds up.
When ROI Sounds Too Good to Be True
Every software evaluation starts with identifying the opportunity, quantifying the potential impact, and building a business case. But things can go sideways when assumptions start drifting into wishful thinking.
In pricing, for example, it’s easy to get caught up in the promise of what’s possible. You look at your company’s revenue and margin structure, run the math, and suddenly you’re staring at a number that looks incredible on paper, but is completely unrealistic in practice.
I remember one situation where a software vendor told our executives, “There’s roughly several hundred basis points of margin improvement potential here.” We’d warned him ahead of time not to share the biggest number. He did it anyway, and that figure became the new expectation, no matter how much we tried to walk it back.
While overpromising might win attention, it makes delivering real results a lot harder.
“ROI evaluations cannot be absolutely accurate because future benefits cannot be estimated within any reasonable boundaries.”
— Dr. Alexander Pasik, “The Uncertainty of ROI: A Statistical Approach,” arXiv.org
That quote is a reminder that the real job is to acknowledge the uncertainty and still make a compelling case.
The Capture Rate Reality Check
The reality is that no one captures 100% of the theoretical value.
That’s where the concept of “capture rate” comes in. If your model shows 3% potential margin lift, you might realistically deliver half that; maybe two-thirds if everything goes smoothly. And that’s okay.
Every company has friction. Adoption curves, process changes, data limitations, and competing priorities can all eat into the upside.
The point isn’t to lower expectations; it’s to promise what’s achievable. A more conservative estimate is a sign you understand how things actually work.
“Eighty-seven percent of B2B decision-makers demand measurable proof of success.”
— Content Marketing Institute, “How to Create Impactful B2B Success Stories,” Brixon Group, 2023
That’s why the story around the number matters just as much as the number itself.
Why Aftermarket ROI Holds Up
When it comes to the aftermarket, the math holds up better than almost anywhere else.
The levers here are well understood and easy to measure: better parts availability, more accurate pricing, less obsolescence, higher fill rates. These aren’t theoretical gains — they show up in service levels, working capital, and customer satisfaction.
At Syncron, we’ve developed an ROI model that breaks value into three core areas. Even if a customer only captures part of the opportunity, the returns are still significant. And because we’ve seen those outcomes across dozens of implementations, we can back up the numbers with real-world data.
Five Ways to Build a More Credible ROI Story
If you want your ROI case to resonate with internal stakeholders or customers, here are a few lessons that have served me well:
- Use real benchmarks. Whether it’s customer outcomes or industry averages, make sure you can defend the source.
- Be honest about capture. A 50–60% capture rate is often a smart assumption and more believable than aiming for 100%.
- Loop in finance early. Don’t wait for your big pitch to find out what won’t fly.
- Tie numbers to operational outcomes. Talk in terms your audience cares about: inventory turns, uptime, service levels.
- Show a range. Conservative, expected, and stretch scenarios show maturity and help you land in the sweet spot.
A business case built on believable numbers is a lot more likely to make it through the approval process and stand up to scrutiny after go-live.
Underpromise. Overdeliver.
If you want to stand out as a software partner today, honesty is your biggest differentiator.
In B2B, anyone who promises you’ll capture 100% of the available opportunity should be viewed skeptically. Business is complex, change is hard, and implementation never goes perfectly. The vendors who acknowledge that reality and can still show a path to value are the ones you can actually trust.
That’s how we work at Syncron. We don’t promise perfection. We focus on what’s achievable. Because when we say, “Even if you only capture half the value, this still makes sense”, and it proves out, that’s what builds long-term partnerships.
Making ROI Real
ROI isn’t just a sales tool. It’s a reflection of how well you understand your customer’s world.
So the next time you’re building or reviewing a business case, whether you’re in pricing, aftermarket, or another part of the enterprise, ask yourself, “Is this believable?”
“You don’t build credibility with big numbers. You build it with believable ones.”
At Syncron, that’s exactly what we aim to do — help you make smarter, faster, more profitable decisions with confidence that holds up under pressure.